Here's how rare it would be for rookie Ezekiel Elliott to get 300 carries

The Dallas Cowboys surprised a lot of people by taking a running back (former Ohio State star Ezekiel Elliott) with the fourth pick in this year's NFL Draft. Running backs have fallen out of vogue lately, largely due to the fact that teams now know they have an extremely short shelf life. They've been getting selected later and later in the draft as a result. The Cowboys, though, bucked that trend.

Dallas wants to return to the run-focused offense that led to the best season of Tony Romo's career in 2014, and presumably wants to use Elliott to do it. It's unlikely they'd have drafted him in the top five if they were just planning to give Darren McFadden or Alfred Morris a ton of carries. So it should come as not much of a surprise that DallasCowboys.com writer David Helman said in an answer to a mailbag question on Tuesday that he expects Elliott to "finish with roughly 280-300 carries."

Could Elliott rack up 300 carries in his rookie year? USATSI

That's probably the consensus expectation for most observers, but here's the thing: it would be incredibly rare. Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, there have been only 30 rookie running backs that carried the ball 280-plus times, per Pro-Football-Refernece. There have been only 17 backs to tote it 300-plus times.

The sample of players to receive that many carries, of course, is biased toward high draft picks. Of the 17 players to carry 300-plus times, 10 were selected in the first 10 picks of the draft and nine were selected in the top five. Of the 280-plus carry rookies, 14 were top-10 picks and 12 were top-five selections.

Even those players, though, were the exception, rather than the rule. There have been 57 running backs selected in the first 10 picks of the draft since the merger, and 33 selected in the top five. That means only 24.6 percent of top-10 picks got 280-plus carries during their rookie season, and just 21.0 percent received 300-plus.

Narrowing the sample down to top-five ball-carriers raises the percentages a bit, but still to pretty low numbers. Just 36.4 percent of top-five running backs received 280-plus carries during the rookie season, and 27.3 percent received 300-plus.

Elliott, then, would have to strongly buck tradition if he were to actually receive that many carries. The Cowboys will likely set the goal of getting him there, but he's going to have to remain both healthy and effective enough in order to actually do it.

Poll: Which Cowboys Rookie Not Named Ezekiel Elliott Will Have The Best Season?

When you invest your fourth overall pick in a running back and pair him with one of the best O-lines in the league, I think the expectation is that you've drafting a guy who'll have a pretty big impact on the team. And not just down the line, but immediately.

In fact, my personal expectation is that given his draft pedigree, Ezekiel Elliott should at least be in contention for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Having said that, my expectations for the remaining Cowboys draft picks are somewhat lower, but I am excited by their potential nevertheless.

Jaylon Smith probably won't take any snaps this year given his injury status, and Dak Prescott definitley shouldn't take any snaps this year, because that would mean another season down the crapper. But there are six other draft picks that could all play a role this year.

Can Maliek Collins step up at three-technique this year despite missing time with a broken foot; can Charles Tapper live up to his athletic potential and establish himself as part of the rotation at defensive end; will Anthony Brown be able to translate his speed into a spot on the roster; is Kavon Frazier able to challenge for a spot at safety; will Darius Jackson impress enough to allow the Cowboys to trade ; does Roco Gathers have enough time to learn how to be part of red zone packages; and could "eighth draft pick" Rodney Coe make an immediate impact on the D-line?

Let us know which rookies you think will have the most success this year.